cecotto479 wrote:You are assuming that economic conditions remain as positive as they have been over the last 5 years. M3s have moved away from the "Practical Classics" end of the market and more into the "Classic Cars" arena. At £5000, most people will be paying cash. At £20000 a good percentage will be borrowing some or all of that, one way or another.
Classic cars are luxury items. As money becomes tighter, people choose not to spend so much of their disposable income on luxury items. As the availability of borrowed money becomes more difficult and more expensive, less luxury items are bought. As people begin to feel the squeeze financially, luxury items are sold first to free up some cash.
All of these factors and more can move to deflate the market and those cars which are seen to be overvalued in the market place will reduce in value first and most significantly.
Where were you in 1990/91? I would not be buying an E30 M3 as an investment just now.
3 years ago, a good MGBGT would be £5000. Now, you will do well to get £3000. Why? Because the market took the view that they were overvalued. The MX5 was better value. I think that there are better value cars out there than the E30 M3 just now and with the looming economic faltering that seems inevitable, classic car values will probably suffer.
Your argument is slightly flawed (IMHO)...
1. The reason the E30 M3 is valued as it is is because it has "iconic" status...You can't remove that, it is intrinsic to the history of motoring.
2. Unlike the MGB, the E30 M3 was only made for a few years and in limited numbers...True, the standard car is not (yet) worth £20K, but the limited edition Evos and Cecottos, etc, are worth close to, if not more in the case of the Evo Sport.
3. Classic car prices (like most prices) are related to what people will pay...If people are *paying* £20K for a decent Evo Sport or Ravaglia, then they may be valued at less (by the popular press), but the current owners will still be getting their asking price. You are correct that any economic downturn could affect the car market, but that applies across the board: not just to E30 M3s!