Potential purchase

[rh306]

https://confluence.cornell.edu/display/ ... al+Economy

"Far removed from the traditional narrative of a vibrant and sustained bull market in the last decade, the art market experienced a substantial crash in 2008, perhaps related to the concurrent worldwide financial crisis. Prices of contemporary, modern, and impressionist artwork decreased about 30%, and Sotheby's and Christie's saw their share prices plunge in reaction to the decrease in global consumer confidence."

"In theory, the wealthiest consumer constitute the bulk of the visible art market, and a large proportion of the value of artistic pieces are subjective and based on perceptions of wealth and status. More than anything, however, is that art is purchased with disposable income..."

Art market crash of 2008, correlating with the financial meltdown.

Since the financial crisis, I get the impression that alternative investments like cars/ art etc have become a lot more mainstream. I don't see people piling back into conventional financial products when we turn this mythical 'corner'.. Even talking to people in the city (lawyers at Clifford Chance, private bankers at Credit Suisse), they're putting money into London property rather than buying bonds, equities etc.

London property is the golden ticket right now, anyone with money is piling in. That bubble will burst. Sadly 90% of the funds under administration at the company I work for are in London real estate so I hope it doesn't happen any time soon.

Traditionally, in times of poor finances people invest more in alternative investments. As returns on traditional financial products improve, investors will switch back.

That is historic of course, but no reason it won't be the same. While it's nice to have a physical asset you can touch, look at and drive, money talks.

Long-term decline in the west is the reason everything isn't going to bounce back to 'normal' this time... We're all doooomed

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2661d1ca-60c3 ... z3oC23IF5Q

[Gert_8]

IMO, the London property bubble would burst - but the circumstances aren't typical of the past.

There is also an anomaly with the ripple effect, in that it spreads out to the rest of the country and This hasn't really happened, with Northern England and UK properties not rising at a similar rate, if at all. However, if the bubble bursts it will harm the properties outside of London more.

Despite the attempts to slow the market down, it's not working in London. It is everywhere else.

I'd love to hear ideas on this.

[rh306]

IMO, the London property bubble would burst - but the circumstances aren't typical of the past.

There is also an anomaly with the ripple effect, in that it spreads out to the rest of the country and This hasn't really happened, with Northern England and UK properties not rising at a similar rate, if at all. However, if the bubble bursts it will harm the properties outside of London more.

Despite the attempts to slow the market down, it's not working in London. It is everywhere else.

I'd love to hear ideas on this.

A Corbyn Win/ redistributive Tax-Fest would kill it fairly quickly I think..

[Gert_8]

I'm not sure that is likely to happen, but you never know.

[bab-91]

Andy, are you going to take that from a young whippersnapper!

[Rav335uk]

Andy, you do realise newspapers are not reliable sources.

[bab-91]

Andy, you do realise newspapers are not reliable sources.

[B7]

Never mind all the bollocks. lets see the potential purchases!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Andyboy]

Blimey, I thought you could read dates.

Article posted 30 January 2015. You said "How would the a financial crisis affect the value of a Monet". News to me that we are in a financial crisis right now.

Keep writing about cars Andy, it's clearly all you know about.

Blimey, I though you could understand Irony!

[Andyboy]

Andy, you do realise newspapers are not reliable sources.

[ross_jsy]

I like how whenever you are wrong you try and be condescending. It's cute.

[Andyboy]

I like how whenever you are wrong you try and be condescending. It's cute.

Thanks.

The irony is that you walked straight into a trap I dug for you with regard to arts values. Rather than being someone who appreciates a Breugel, a Bosch or an Escher, you confirmed that the knowledge you have is something I could read from a book - hence my tongue in cheek Guardian quote that (as expected) appears to have sailed straight over your pretty little head. Do you really think we’re all ignorant of what’s happened to the values of commodities in the past 5+ years?


Keep trying. Keep reading. But have a genuine, original thought of your own sometime rather than quoting someone else’s.

[ThrustingBeast]

I am pony

[ross_jsy]

I'm sure it was an elaborate trap you set up Andy, keep telling yourself that. The reality is you stated some facts, which were wrong, and you can't admit that, instead coming up with some bullshit "art is worth more than money nonsense" to prove how pompous you are.

Shut up Pony, ban hammer is coming out soon

[Andyboy]

I'm sure it was an elaborate trap you set up Andy, keep telling yourself that. The reality is you stated some facts, which were wrong, and you can't admit that, instead coming up with some bullshit "art is worth more than money nonsense" to prove how pompous you are.

Shut up Pony, ban hammer is coming out soon

Truth hurts eh?

Sadly, you decided to get personal and insulting - showing that you basically lost any argument you may have thought you had. However, if you want to redeem yourself, give us your considered opinion on how (and why) you think the classic car market will crash. By crash, I mean when stuff more than halves in value as everyone tries to offload cars in a wild panic as happened in 1991. Take into account the burgeoning markets for this stuff in Russia and China, countries that weren’t really buying a lot of classic cars in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.
You think it will happen like this again and so I’d like to hear your thinking on this - it’s a serious question, not a pisstake.

Are you up to it? I think you're full of shit, but prove me otherwise.

[ross_jsy]

Not really Andyboy, not seen any truth so far.

Not sure how to make it any simpler than IT'S A MARKET. It will crash. So you are assuming no event will occur in the future which will have any impact on the classic car market, or any other commodities market for that matter? Cute and naive. China is an interesting phenomenon right now, one that is destroying all previous economic models. But to think it will carry on like that is bizarre to be quite frank. It's the most artificial market place going and massively overvalued. Just look at what happened to their stock market this year.

Honestly, if you think you have come up with an economic model that allows for continuous sustainable growth, get on the phone to all the central banks, you are about to become a very rich man!

I think you are full of shit too, but go ahead, prove me, and every economist wrong

[Andyboy]

Who said the economies of China and Russia will continue to grow ad infinitum? Of course they can't!

You use the word 'crash' too much. In 1991 the market for classic cars crashed. Cars like million quid Ferraris dropped in value buy as much as 80%. That was a crash. But despite the worldwide economy continuing to strengthen, classic car value continue to climb today albeit not at the same rate as they did. Classic car dealers I know are saying values will level out soon and some cars might devalue a touch if there are too many for sale. What they all say to a mans is that most cars have found their mark, and none think there will be a collapse in values again. The circumstances, as I've said about 10 times already, are completely different this time around.


Btw, I'm not an economist, and neither are you.

[ThrustingBeast]

Ross I presume your at the London School of Economics ?

[Jon_Bmw]

He must tear his hair out there, being significantly cleverer than everyone else.

Is this the reason for the hair loss after all?

[ross_jsy]

Who said the economies of China and Russia will continue to grow ad infinitum? Of course they can't!

You use the word 'crash' too much. In 1991 the market for classic cars crashed. Cars like million quid Ferraris dropped in value buy as much as 80%. That was a crash. But despite the worldwide economy continuing to strengthen, classic car value continue to climb today albeit not at the same rate as they did. Classic car dealers I know are saying values will level out soon and some cars might devalue a touch if there are too many for sale. What they all say to a mans is that most cars have found their mark, and none think there will be a collapse in values again. The circumstances, as I've said about 10 times already, are completely different this time around.


Btw, I'm not an economist, and neither are you.

We will see. There are far greater market forces than a few rich people buying cars. Are you saying we are never going to see another global economic downturn? Which is my point. It's a very short term view to say they will level out.

No, but my dad is an economist with an MBA, been an underwriter for a number of years, before that a credit controller, stockbroker and lecturer on the economy and over the years has taught me a little of what he knows

[ross_jsy]

He must tear his hair out there, being significantly cleverer than everyone else.

Is this the reason for the hair loss after all?

Not hard to be the smartest around with thicko's like you joining in merely to add a cheap insult that doesn't bother me

[bab-91]

Ross I presume your at the London School of Economics ?

F**K Sake!

[Andyboy]

Are you saying we are never going to see another global economic downturn?

Only a fool would say otherwise. Not even me.

Economic downturns tend not to affect the mega wealthy, or those who have money in the bank, no mortgage etc. Those who can ride out downturns, in other words. These are the people buying classic cars right now.
Certain cars such as E Types, Morris 1000's and so on are fairly vulnerable because there are still lots of them left. But there will always be someone with 25 grand to buy a Mark 1 Escort Mexico or an E30 M3, mainly because there aren't many left in nice condition. Don't forget also that these two cars were not on the radar as classics in 1990. The M3 was still a depreciating new car and the Mexico was a £1500 Escort that was just starting to climb in value. The last classic car boom was based on E Types, Ferrari GTO's and stuff like that. You had to be there to see the stupid money stuff was making - when Porsche announced the demise of the 911 Turbo, values doubled overnight. Until Porsche announced the 964 Turbo a year later!

I wouldn't say that classic cars are a great investment now because anything that was going to shoot up in value has already done so. Some of it may drop a little. But let's just say that a really nice E30 M3 would always keep pace with inflation and get you your money back after 5 years.

The classic car market is fickle. That's why a 1988 Porsche 911 or Ferrari 328GTB are both worth 50 grand each in mint condition and an M635CSi of the same age is worth 30 grand at the most. How is a 3.0 CSL worth a 20% of a Porsche 911 Carrera 2.7 RS? Why is an RS2000 worth three times as much as an Avenger Tiger?

[Speedtouch]

Don't forget, the Morris 1000 Traveller was a handbuilt 'wattle and daub paedo chariot', according to you, so that must make it worth an absolute fortune by now, amongst the various many and varied 'paedos' that seem to crop up practically every day now in the popular press!

Sod yer M3s and GTOs, the good old Minor woodie is what you all want to be investing in.

[bookmark]

I am pony

Who is pony?

[Rav335uk]

I am pony

Who is pony?

A banned Zoner who has a double identity

[Andyboy]

Don't forget, the Morris 1000

I prefer my BMC products FWD with Hydrolastic thanks.

[Speedtouch]

Well, if lots of rust and awkward to work on engine bays is your thing...

[Andyboy]

Issigonis? I prefer his later work.

[LondonTom]

Quality handbags there lads - why don't you both just post up screen shots of your personal trading accounts to save the willy waving on here.

Please can we get back to talking about rusty old shitters.

[Nobby_N]

I need pictures to understand what the bigger boys are talking about!

[Andyboy]

I need pictures to understand what the bigger boys are talking about!

Not tractors or wife swapping.


So p iss off.

[povertyspec]

i keep stashing 500 quid mk1 MX5s in an old warehouse, please dont tell me there's going to be a classic car crash, it'll take me years to transport them all down to the scrapyard. followed by my collection of rare E30 interior parts thats also my pension fund.

[HairyScreech]

China's economy is already slowing, we can see it in the commodity prices, wages and the governments u-turn on its recent policy of non-interference with the markets. (that and the China Economic Review sat on my desk).

Getting back to the rusty turds...

There are several things that could rise, Z3M and Z4M certainly will. By proxy the Early wide body Z3 and the Z4 3.0 coupe will rise like the 325 sport has behind the M3.

The V10 M5 will but not for a long time, however it is unique among its contemporaries.

M12 nobels are cheap now and I can see them rising, Yes they are not much more than kit cars but so were things like the AC cobra and lister-jaguar.

300ZX turbos seem to be rising steadily, they were worth nothing but do seem to keep getting higher as the turds die out.
Ditto the RX7 and early evo/impreza. RX7s are already on the rise.
Continuing with the rice - The Honda S2000.

I can see the early Lotus exige becoming collectable as the ultimate and more expensive/rarer version of the elise.
For the same manufacturer the esprit seems to continue to rise, just not very quickly.

Further west of europe, the First generation dodge viper could be a good call, values are down to ~£30k now.

The MK1 focus RS will go up more once the weighbridge dodging normal models vanish.

Prices for Lancia Deltas seems to be running high but that ship has probably sailed.

One that always seems overlooked is the Opel Speedster, I can see those rising.

Thoughts?

[Andyboy]

I don't entirely agree. But that's just my opinion!

The ONLY Z3 that will be worth any money in years to come will be the M Coupe with the Roadster a distant second. A bit like a 300SL Gullwing versus the roadster that replaced it - a better car, but without the mad gulling doors it doesn't have the same appeal. Regular Z3's will just die out and or become cheap sports cars like the MGB. They weren't very highly regarded when new but they sold a huge number of them - a lose/lose combination.

Z4M? Maybe, but they sold so few and they're not well known.

V10 M5? They will just become too difficult and expensive to keep going. The parts prices are just insane and they will become donors. The E39 M5 however will overtake it in value quite soon.

Not sure about the Rice but I like the 300ZX, a great looking car that went like the clappers. Once the council drift crew have destroyed 98% of them, maybe.

Mark 1 RS Focus - they're already on the rise. Like the Jap stuff, too many have been murdered by knuckledragger boost morons so a mint standard one is already getting rare. They are a superb car as well. A nice well cared for ST170 is worth stashing now.

I would be buying a sub 50'000 mile E46 M3* in a funky colour (Laguna Seca or Phoenix yellow) as they were the last of the proper M3's with both the looks and manageable running costs. The E92 V8 is a great car like the V10, they're bit fragile and the parts costs are just silly. Ditto F10 and current M3/M4 stuff.


* A rare and desirable CS with Park Lane service history will be the most valuable I reckon.